Degrees of certainty about the future

Confidence is not the same as fact

When you predict, you say what you believe will happen. Your words show how strongly you present that belief. They cannot make the future certain.

These are useful contrasts, not exact percentages. A speaker can say It will probably arrive even if another speaker prefers It might arrive. The choice presents the speaker's view. Evidence alone does not force one particular word.

A plan or wish belongs in a different comparison. I plan to apply tells you my intention. I hope I get the place tells you what I want. Neither says that getting the place is certain.

Modal forms: keep the base verb

The base verb is the form without to: arrive, work, be. Do not add -s after a modal: she may arrive, not she may arrives. Do not combine two core modals: will be able to, not will can.

• The second coach may arrive later.
• The second coach might not be full.
• The extra space should be useful.

Will contracts to 'll; will not contracts to won't. To ask about a prediction with will, put will before the subject: Will the new route save time? Other meanings of will, including willingness and promises, are on Will and shall: forms, predictions, decisions and offers. This page compares predictions, not every modal meaning.

Will, definitely and probably

Will can present a strong belief about the future. Definitely or certainly makes the speaker's confidence explicit. Probably gives a prediction with a good chance of happening, without presenting it as certain.

• The next version will definitely include a larger map.
• The new timetable will probably reduce the wait.

This position after will is a useful starting pattern, not the only correct order. British Council also accepts definitely before will. Do not mark They definitely will agree wrong just because the adverb comes first.

With a negative prediction, use patterns such as probably won't or definitely won't. You can also put definitely between will and not. The meaning remains a prediction that something will not happen.

• The short delay probably won't affect the connection.
• The extra chair definitely won't block the door.
• The extra chair will definitely not block the door.

Keep possibility and strong confidence apart. The chair might not fit leaves open the possibility of no fit. The chair definitely won't fit presents no fit as the speaker's firm prediction. Neither sentence is an instruction about what someone must do.

Should: the result you expect

Should can describe what you expect because it seems normal or reasonable. Shouldn't can describe a result you expect not to happen. This use is different from advice.

• The repair should take less than an hour; the damaged part is easy to reach.
• The new seal shouldn't leak if it is fitted correctly.

Compare The technician should check the seal, which gives advice, with The seal should hold, which expresses an expectation. The subject and context help you see the meaning.

An expectation is not a guarantee. It should arrive today allows for things not going as expected. For wider meanings and the limits of reassuring should, see Should, ought to and had better: advice and expectation and Advanced probability: may, might, could, should and can.

May, might and could: an open possibility

Use may, might or could when you are considering a future possibility. Do not treat may as a promise or learn fixed numerical values for these three words.

• We may add a second session in July.
• The organisers might change the room.
• A later start could help people travelling from outside the city.

For an uncertain negative, may not or might not means perhaps something will not happen. It does not normally mean a strong rejection of the possibility in this use.

• The trial may not produce a clear answer.
• The smaller van might not hold every box.

Do not automatically replace might not with couldn't. Couldn't can strongly reject an explanation or describe inability or an unavailable option. British Council's future lesson does not teach it as the ordinary perhaps-not choice. It is not banned from every sentence about the future: meanings and conditions matter. See Can, could and be able to: ability, possibility and permission and Advanced probability: may, might, could, should and can.

Perhaps, maybe and short replies

Perhaps and maybe can introduce a possible future event. They usually come at the beginning of the clause. Do not use them as verbs.

• Perhaps the spare key will turn up during the move.
• Maybe we will need a longer extension cable.

In a short reply, the context supplies the event: Will the second team join us? Probably. To leave a negative possibility open, you can say Maybe not. To report a likely negative result, say Probably not.

You can also reply I hope so when you want the event to happen, or I hope not when you want it not to happen. These state a wish, not a degree of evidence. I expect so states your belief about what will happen. More reply patterns are on Short answers, so do I, neither do I, and I think so.

Plans, wishes and expectations

Plan to describes an intention. Want to and would like to say what you want. Mean to can mean intend to. Hope to describes a desired possibility; expect to describes what you believe will happen. The same to-form does not give all these verbs the same meaning.

• I plan to collect the samples on Friday.
• We would like to keep the original cover.
• I mean to label the drawers before we move.
• They expect to finish the survey next month.

With hope to, the subject normally does the hoped-for action: I hope to join means I want to join. To talk about another person's action, use a clause with its own subject: I hope that Maya joins. You can leave out that: I hope Maya joins.

After hope, a present form can refer to the future: We hope the roof stays dry during the next storm. Will is also possible in a future clause after hope. Do not add will after infinitive to: hope to finish, not hope to will finish.

Expect also takes a that-clause: I expect that the parcel will reach us tomorrow. Another pattern is expect + person/thing + to: I expect the parcel to reach us tomorrow. Hope does not use that object + to pattern in the same way: say I hope the parcel reaches us tomorrow.

To express a wish for something not to happen, put the negative in the following clause: I hope the alarm doesn't wake the baby. For a negative expectation, Cambridge gives a preference for I don't expect it will take long. Do not turn that preference into a ban on I expect it won't take long.

Likely, bound and other expressions

Be likely to presents an event as probable. Be unlikely to or be not likely to presents a low probability, not impossibility. Be bound to, be sure to and be certain to can express strong confidence. Change be to fit the subject: it is likely, they are likely.

• The online queue is likely to grow during the sale.
• The revised code is unlikely to change before the launch.
• With every seat sold, the hall is bound to feel crowded.

You can use a clause after likely or certain: It's likely that the queue will grow; I'm certain that the queue will grow. Notice the different subjects: the first reports a probability; the second identifies the person who feels certain. Other meanings, such as being legally bound to do something, are separate from predictions.

Expressions with chance also take clauses: There's a good chance that the road will reopen soon presents a likely event; There's a chance that it will reopen leaves a possibility open. There's no chance that it will reopen tonight presents a strong negative view. These expressions still report a judgement, not a guarantee.

Think, expect and doubt can introduce your view: I think the road will reopen; I don't think it will reopen tonight; I doubt it will reopen tonight. Doubt here expresses lack of confidence in the event, not a confident positive prediction. Further comparison is on Advanced probability: may, might, could, should and can.

What comes next

For other future meanings, see Will and shall: forms, predictions, decisions and offers, Be going to: forms, plans and predictions and Will or be going to?: decisions, plans and predictions. Use Present continuous and present simple for the future for arrangements and timetables, Future time clauses: when, as soon as, if and until for when and if, and The future continuous, future perfect and future perfect continuous for ongoing or completed future events. Possibility and expectations are on May and might: possibility and other meanings, Should, ought to and had better: advice and expectation and Advanced probability: may, might, could, should and can. Each page keeps its own review status.